EXCHANGE RATE INFLUENCERS AND NON-OIL EXPORTS: FRESH INSIGHTS FROM NIGERIA

Abstract: This research investigates the effectiveness of currency rate influencers and non-oil exports in Nigeria. Time series data were taken from the World Development Index (WDI) and the CBN Statistical Bulletin 2022. The variable's nature necessitates the employment of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) across a 43-year period (1981-2022). The results revealed that there is a long-term association between exchange rate and non-oil exports in Nigeria. It also indicated that the exchange rate had a positive but minor influence on non-oil exports, indicating that the naira's depreciation versus the US dollar did not enhance non-oil export growth throughout the study period. Evidence from the results revealed a detrimental association between trade openness and non-oil exports. In terms of inflation, the analysis revealed that inflation had an advantageous but small long-term influence on non-oil exports. According to the study, increasing the money supply has a considerable long-run effect on non-oil exports. Following this, the report advised, among other things, that the government, through its monetary authority, develop a comprehensive exchange rate policy that will not only keep the exchange rate generally constant but also relatively high for investors interested in non-oil sectors. This serves as an incentive for these investors, boosting non-oil GDP and enhancing Nigeria's economic growth and development.