Social tensions and predicting political protest: social media analysis model

The authors of this work tried to test the hypothesis of R. Elliot that the psychology of the masses repeats patterns based on Fibonacci ratios in the analysis of social network messages in the context of protest topics, measuring the level of social tension, predicting the growth of this tension and the possibility of splashing into political protest. The quantitative model of the Social Media Index, which takes into account the number of entries in the country's social networks of messages containing word forms and plots indicating social tension, enables to apply the hypothesis in question. In this particular example, the analysis of social networks of the Republic of Kazakhstan confirmed the performance of the model. Based on the analysis of topics related to public discontent, it was possible to predict the growth of social tension and from a certain point the transition of discontent into open political protest. The study of the model requires continuation. A special attention should be paid to predicting the transition of social tension into open forms of mass political protest and identifying the tools of manipulative technologies that act as a catalyst for protest processes.