Sustainable Energy Futures: Transition Scenarios and Instruments in Selected Case Study Regions

It is widely recognized that urgent action is needed to combat climate change and to transition to a more sustainable societal and economic path. A key focus is the energy transition, which refers to the shift from fossil fuel-based energy systems to renewable and sustainable energy sources, with the aim of reducing carbon emissions and mitigating climate change. Various models and analytical tools have been developed to describe and explore different scenario pathways for this transition (Weyant et al., 1995; Weyant, 2017; Hare et al., 2018). These scenario pathways are structured, model-based narratives that describe possible futures based on a set of defined assumptions. They provide plausible projections based on models that aim to replicate the complex and nonlinear dynamics of energy, economic, and climate systems. These scenarios are not intended to be used as predictive tools, but rather as constructs to help conceptualize potential outcomes. In the context of strategic planning, they provide decision-makers with a clearer understanding of different pathways to a sustainable future, considering factors such as technological advances, policy changes, and societal responses (Wiek et al., 2006; Alcamo, 2008). Considering a range of scenarios can provide a better understanding of their attributes and consequences, which in turn can inform strategy formulation. Scenario analysis is therefore a relevant tool for policy makers dealing with climate change and transition management (Wiek et al., 2006). A wide range of scenario narratives, and thus many specific scenario pathways, are available for the analysis of energy transitions. Prominent scenario pathways have been developed, synthesized, reanalyzed and published, for example, by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2023), the International Energy Agency (Bouckaert et al., 2021), the World Energy Council (Kober et al., 2020), the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (Bataille et al, 2016), as well as by (supra-national entities such as the European Union and its institutions (Capros et al., 2016; Tsiropoulos et al., 2020), and academic and semi-academic consortia such as the Network for Greening the Financial System (Bertram et al., 2020; Richters et al., 2022). All these scenarios have specific themes, assumptions, and narratives behind them, and have been developed with a specific goal in mind. With thousands of scenarios available, summarizing each one is a daunting, if not impractical, task for policy makers This report aims to present the key components of transition scenarios from prominent scenario formulations. The goal is to highlight critical transition drivers, key energy transition concepts, and potential heterogeneity across selected case study regions around the globe. The report provides high-level insights and guidance on the evolution of energy systems for policy makers, businesses and other stakeholders. Within the EU-funded Sustainability Performances Evidence & Scenarios (SPES) project, this report serves as an input for discussions and workshops with policy makers and stakeholders.