Ticking away: The long-term X-ray timing and spectral evolution of eRO-QPE2

Quasi-periodic eruptions (QPEs) are repeated X-ray flares from galactic nuclei that recur every few hours to days, depending on the source. Despite some diversity in the recurrence and amplitude of eruptions, their striking regularity has motivated theorists to associate QPEs with orbital systems. Among the known QPE sources, eRO-QPE2 has shown the most regular flare timing and luminosity since its discovery. We report here on its long-term evolution over 3.3 yr from discovery and find that: i) the average QPE recurrence time per epoch has decreased over time, albeit not at a uniform rate; ii) the distinct alternation between consecutive long and short recurrence times found at discovery has not been significant since; iii) the spectral properties, namely flux and temperature of both eruptions and quiescence components, have remained remarkably consistent within uncertainties. We attempted to interpret these results as orbital period and eccentricity decay coupled with orbital and disk precession. However, since gaps between observations are too long, we are not able to distinguish between an evolution dominated by just a decreasing trend, or by large modulations (e.g. due to the precession frequencies at play). In the former case, the observed period decrease is roughly consistent with that of a star losing orbital energy due to hydrodynamic gas drag from disk collisions, although the related eccentricity decay is too fast and additional modulations have to contribute too. In the latter case, no conclusive remarks are possible on the orbital evolution and the nature of the orbiter due to the many effects at play. However, these two cases come with distinctive predictions for future X-ray data: in the case of a decreasing trend, we expect all future observations to show a shorter recurrence time than the latest epoch, while in the case of large-amplitude modulations we expect some future observations to be found with a larger recurrence, hence an apparent temporary period increase.