Analysis of the impact of widespread residential heat pumps and photovoltaics on the electricity distribution grid in Hamburg

In this paper we discuss simulation results from a model developed to analyze the impact of household heat pumps (HP) and photovoltaics (PV) on the electricity distribution grid in Hamburg. Initially, the paper presents estimates of the future heat and electricity demand and PV-generated electricity, for residential buildings in Hamburg referring to existing studies and tools. Using a Linear Programming (LP) model, optimized electricity flows are calculated for the application of thermal and/or battery storage alongside the PV and HP installations in order to reduce the peak electricity loads for each individual building. To evaluate the results and the possible impacts on the electricity distribution grid, the results are aggregated based on their approximate location in relation to the medium-voltage (MV) supply areas. The results indicate that the effects of PV and HP on the electricity distribution grid are not evenly distributed and depend highly on the availability of a district heating solution.