Comparison of different scoring systems in predicting the need for blood transfusion in emergency department; a diagnostic accuracy study

Background: Transfusion of packed red blood cells (PRBCs) following severe bleeding from multiple trauma can reduce mortality.Objectives: The present study aimed to compare the accuracy of eight different scoring systems for predicting the need for blood transfusion in such patients.Methods: The present diagnostic accuracy study was conducted at the emergency department of Shohadaye Tajrish Hospital in Tehran, From March to September 2023. Medical records of multiple trauma patients admitted to the emergency department were reviewed. The predictive performances of eight scoring systems including Glasgow coma scale (GCS), revised trauma score (RTS), trauma associated severe hemorrhage (TASH), Prince of Wales hospital score (PWH), emergency transfusion score (ETS), base deficit, assessment of blood consumption (ABC), and the Shock index in predicting the need for PRBC transfusion were assessed.Results: The area under the ROC curve of TASH in predicting PRBC transfusion was calculated 0.959, significantly higher than the area under the ROC curves for PWH, GCS, Shock index, Base deficit, ETS, RTS, and ABC (0.902, 0.899, 0.882, 0.857, 0.846, 0.824, and 0.810 respectively; p < 0.001). Sensitivity and specificity of TASH at the optimal cut-off were 98.72% and 51.56% respectively. A new score, the MTTP (Multiple Trauma Transfusion Predictor), developed by evaluating the association of clinical and laboratory variables with PRBC transfusion in the ED, showed an AUC of 0.964, not significantly higher than the AUC of TASH (p=0.804). The sensitivity and specificity of MTTP at the optimal cut-off were 93.59% and 91.84%, respectively.Conclusion: Among the evaluated scores, TASH was the most accurate for predicting PRBC transfusion in multiple trauma patients in the ED. Furthermore, among the pre-hospital scores, the Shock index was identified as the most accurate predictor for PRBC transfusion. This score is recommended for use in the ED due to its simplicity, rapid calculation and high prediction accuracy. The MTTP, the newly developed scoring system in this study, outperformed all the other scores.