The Role and Impact of Rooftop PV in the Norwegian Energy System under Different Energy Transition Pathways

This study focuses on investigating the impact and cost-competitiveness of solar power in a highly hydropower-driven northern energy system. The goal is to assess the role of rooftop PV in the Norwegian energy system towards 2050 under different energy transition pathways. Energy system analysis is conducted using the IFE-TIMES-Norway model, with an integrated detailed representation of rooftop PV based on the tilt and azimuth of existing rooftops in Norway. A thorough sensitivity analysis is conducted to illustrate how investment in rooftop PV varies under different system and parameter conditions and to disclose important barriers for PV in similar energy systems. The results show that when PV investments are facilitated, solar power could potentially stand for 56% of all new investments, resulting in a share of 10% of the total electricity generation. The study highlights that with less competition from onshore wind and lower investment costs and rate of return, the investments in PV could increase significantly and reach high potential in multiple building sectors.