Mode-choice modelling of a sustainable mobility transition considering different bicycle types

This paper investigates the mode-shift potentials of a road-space reallocation policy with the goal of reducing car-use with the goals of improving liveability and reducing transport related emissions in urban areas. We show the mode-choice effects of repurposing 46% of road surface area from cars to bicycles, e-bikes (25 km/h) and s-pedelecs (45 km/h) as well as internalizing external transport costs in Zurich, Switzerland. The preferences for the different modes is analysed and discussed through the estimation of an Integrated Choice and Latent Variable mode-choice model. The model results show how s-pedelecs and e-bikes have a substantially higher demand potential than conventional bicycles among car drivers. At the same time, latent preferences are not only mostly defined through car ownership in a binary way, namely owning a car or not, but also vary substantially when comparing owners of different car types. Besides considering individual-specific cycling travel times for the three different bicycle types, we also advance mode-choice modelling for cycling by introducing a open-data based cycling infrastructure interaction parameter variable that includes route- specfic cycling infrastructure information. Findings show that reallocating road space is more effective in promoting sustainable mobility than pricing mechanisms alone, highlighting the need for integrated policy measures to facilitate behavioral change.