Complex Deforestation Patterns in and Around the Protected Areas of Madagascar from 2015 to 2023

Madagascar's protected areas (PAs) play a critical role in biodiversity conservation, yet deforestation continues to threaten both their integrity and surrounding landscapes. This study assesses deforestation patterns inside and within a 5 km buffer zone around terrestrial PAs from 2015 to 2023, using improved remote sensing data based on Landsat 8. We examine the influence of governance, PA category, proximity to infrastructure, and human population dynamics on deforestation rates. Our results illustrate that PAs categorized under IUCN I to IV generally experience lower deforestation rates inside their boundaries than PAs in categories V and VI. The latter often mirror the deforestation patterns observed in their surrounding buffer zones. Additionally, larger PAs, PAs with greater road accessibility, and areas experiencing migration-driven land-use changes exhibit higher amounts of deforestation. We highlight the role of buffer zones as deforestation absorbers and discuss the need for adaptive governance strategies that integrate local socio-economic realities to enhance conservation effectiveness. These findings offer critical insights for improving Madagascar's PA management and broader land-use planning.