Analysis of Cassava Production Trends, Growth Rate, Instability Index, and Decomposition in Nigeria

The research examined the trends, growth rates, and instability indices related to the output, harvested area, and yield of cassava in Nigeria. Utilizing secondary data sourced from the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) for the years 1961 to 2022, the study revealed irregular patterns in the trends of cassava output, harvested area, and yield during the specified periods. The compound growth rates identified for the period from 1961 to 2022 were 4.07% for output, 4.41% for harvested area, and -0.32% for yield. The Cuddy-Della Valle Instability Index (CDI) and the Coppock Instability Index (COI) were calculated to be 19.61 and 76.92 for output, 41.24 and 82.12 for harvested area, and 15.07 and 43.85 for yield, respectively. These instability indices are notably high, reflecting considerable volatility within the cassava sub-sector in Nigeria. A decomposition analysis of the total effect of cassava output revealed that the area effect contributed 163.82%, while the yield effect accounted for -4.96%, and the interaction effect represented -58.86%. These findings suggest that the area effect is the principal factor driving the growth of cassava output in Nigeria. Consequently, it is recommended that various initiatives be implemented within the sub-sector to promote increased activity and potentially enhance both output and yield.