Aggregate and Disaggregate Effects of the US-China Trade War on US Agriculture

In 2018 and 2019, the US-China trade war caused a significant shift in US agricultural trade dynamics. This thesis conducts an aggregate and disaggregate analysis of the impact, using event study analysis to reveal varying effects on US agricultural exports, with a substantial effect on Soybean and Dairy exports. The analysis also found that there are heterogeneous effects on other agricultural commodities such as fruits, wheat, and tree nuts. Using Bayesian Structural Time Series Modeling, the study finds a 29% decline in soybean exports during the trade war period. These findings underscore the importance of considering the heterogeneity in the impact of trade policies on agricultural commodities, highlighting the need for targeted policy interventions based on these variations.