State of the Science Fact Sheet: Uncertainty in Forecasting Weather and Water

Uncertainty is an inherent part of all predictions. Understanding the uncertainty associated with specific forecasts enables users of those forecasts to strengthen their decision making. Forecast users and industry partners now look to NOAA to regularly characterize and convey forecast confidence and uncertainty. As a result, NOAA is: (1) quantifying forecast uncertainty; (2) providing uncertainty information visually and verbally in decision support services and (3) assessing the benefits and challenges of using uncertainty information to enhance decision making. Building relationships with its partners and understanding their needs and risk preferences enable us to evolve our science and services and provide better ways to communicate risk to decision makers.