The Influence of Global Crises on Acceptance of Autocracy in Germany. Paper presented at the 82nd Annual Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago (IL), April 3rd, 2025.

This paper investigates how global conflicts and crises influence public attitudes toward democracy in Germany, particularly fears related to war, climate change, and migration. As part of the study "People in Germany: International", online surveys are conducted every two to three months. Our data tracks how perceptions of societal challenges and associated concerns shape attitudes toward democracy over time. A new measurement is used to gauge acceptance of autocracy, defined by the rejection of democratic norms like open debate and parliamentary oversight, and support for more authoritarian leadership. Results indicate that about 30% of the German population exhibits some level of autocracy acceptance, with variations across political affiliations—from 14.8% among Green Party voters to 50.1% among AfD (a far right party) supporters. Acceptance of autocracy is not confined to right-wing or lower-educated groups but spans various social demographics. Concerns over access to necessities—housing, energy, work, and food—aggravated by fears of war, climate change, or migration, increase the likelihood of supporting autocracy. Those who view political leaders as incompetent are even more inclined toward authoritarian preferences. Finally, we present results from vignette experiments which are used to assess whether experimentally manipulated perceptions of military conflicts, such as the Russian war in Ukraine or the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, have a causal effect on autocracy acceptance among respondents.