Modeling the effects of land use change on agricultural carrying capacity and food security

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Food security is a global issue outlined in the sustainable development goals. Food problems are related to the availability of food sources. The availability of agricultural land as the primary source of food production is decreasing due to the increase in population. Changing agricultural land to built-up land causes problems in food security and the land’s carrying capacity. This study aims to detect land use changes and performs simulations models to predict future land use changes in the special region of Yogyakarta and their impact on the region’s agricultural land carrying capacity and food security. Predictions of spatial land changes will reveal changes in land function, carrying capacity and food security between regions.METHODS: Land changes were studied using remote sensing imagery-based mapping methods and spatial simulations using the cellular automata approach. The land change map illustrates the spatial distribution of agricultural land that has changed.Spatial simulation was carried out using the cellular automata algorithm, through computers and spatial data processing software. The carrying capacity of agricultural land is used to calculate the availability of rice fields to support the food needs of the population. Determination of the land carrying capacity status is carried out by comparing land availability with land needs. Meanwhile, the calculation of food security uses a methodology adopted from the food security and vulnerability atlas method.RESULTS: Prediction results showed that the special region of Yogyakarta’s built-up land area will expand between 2026 and 2034. The land carrying capacity will decline with the expansion of the built-up area, which will primarily be converted from agricultural land. However, the agricultural land’s carrying capacity increased, and the food security decreased. Through the preservation of agricultural land and the use of agricultural advances, the agricultural land’s carrying capacity can be increased to support sustainable food security. The carrying capacity of the agricultural land in the special region of Yogyakarta between 2018 and 2022 ranged from 0.0026 to 1.034. In 2018, most areas in this region had high food security. Yogyakarta City was the only city in 2018 with the lowest food security at 66.34. In 2022, Kulon Progo Regency and Sleman Regency had a lower food security level than the previous year.CONCLUSION: This study explores land use change, land carrying capacity, and food security in the Special Region of Yogyakarta, Indonesia. Land conversion is inevitable due to population growth and development programs, and the rise of agricultural areas turning into built-up land threatens food sources. The study uses food security and vulnarebility atlas mapping indicators, agricultural land carrying capacity, and food security to explain the complex interactions. Cellular automata predicts land use changes, showing the highest land use change in 2034 directly impacts land carrying capacity and food security. Proactive approaches are needed to ensure food security and sustainable agricultural development. The findings can guide future research and policy efforts to improve food security and encourage sustainable agricultural practices.