Future Studies on the Financial Sustainability of Pension Funds in Iran

Objective Over the last few years, pension funds have encountered sustainability issues. Despite this, no scientific research has been conducted on strategies for overcoming instability. Therefore, the current issue is to identify the key drivers influencing the financial sustainability of pension funds and analyze and understand their interrelationships. Additionally, it is crucial to pinpoint areas for action and develop strategies and plans to overcome financial instability based on potential future scenarios. Methods In terms of its goal and nature, the current study is applied and uses a mixed-methods approach, respectively. Moreover, the study was conducted using both survey and exploratory approaches. To address the issue, the impact and influence of the key drivers were determined through structural analysis and results obtained from MicMac software. By identifying the significant and uncertain key drivers, future scenarios were extracted according to the Schwartz Theory. Through content analysis of expert interview results and the literature review, the areas of action and policy-making for pension funds were examined, and strategies were formulated by integrating these actions. Using MATLAB software, the fuzzy inference system, and based on six stable planning methods, robust strategies to improve financial sustainability were established. Results The research findings reveal that sanctions, economic and military tensions, along with the independence of the funds from the government are the two primary key drivers of the financial sustainability of the funds, exerting the greatest influence on financial sustainability and other key drivers. Morphological analysis of these two key drivers results in nine potential scenarios that pension funds may face in the future. The research findings highlight ten strategic action areas, resulting in the discovery of thirty-two distinct strategies and the creation of ten knowledge bases. Using the fuzzy inference system and knowledge base analysis, the essential data for analyzing the robustness of strategies was gathered. The strategies to overcome financial instability were assessed using the results from six stable planning methods. The chosen strategy includes reforming and enhancing parameters that impact pension funds’ obligations. Additionally, it seeks to implement a multi-pillar system, integrate the pension system with the tax system, and develop insurance schemes. Furthermore, the strategy focuses on providing comprehensive coverage (including migrants) for taking part in pension and insurance plans and delegating the management of the fund’s investments to financial institutions to boost profitability. Conclusion Structural analysis of the key drivers highlights the significance of macroeconomic variables and fund governance. In addition to their impact on sustainability, these two dimensions also affect other key drivers. Therefore, the relationships between these key drivers must be taken into account in decision-making. Furthermore, these dimensions are heavily influenced by general national policies and greatly impact the potential future scenarios. Revisiting this matter will positively influence the funds' performance. To overcome financial instability, pension funds must take extensive actions, including drafting new pension schemes, securing sustainable funding sources, and improving investment returns. Pension system laws and regulations need to be reviewed by the relevant authorities, and the independence of the funds must be considered in financial decision-making. Given the intertwined social and economic impacts of pension funds, any reforms or strategies adopted in this sector must be implemented with full stakeholder awareness and a thorough assessment of both visible and hidden effects to ensure the best outcomes.