Assessing Livelihood Vulnerability of Pastoral Community to Climate Change and Adaptation Strategy: The Case of Ginnir Woreda, East Bale Zone, South East Ethiopia

Abstract Vulnerability to climate change is considered high in developing countries due to social, economic, and environmental conditions that amplify propensity to negative impacts and contribute to low capacity to cope with and adapt to climate hazards. The general objective of this study is to assess livelihood vulnerability of pastoral community to climate change and adaptation strategy in Ginnir woreda. To meet the objective the study used cross-sectional survey research designs with mixed research approach. The study applied a multi-stage sampling technique with simple random sampling method to select 363 sampled households and employed both quantitative and qualitative data. The study used data from both primary and secondary sources. Both descriptive statistical tools and qualitative narration were employed for analysis. Quantitative data was analyzed by using statistical techniques (range, frequency, and percentage). Whereas qualitative data was collected from note taking and recording activities, key informant interview and focused group discussion. Moreover, livelihood vulnerability was analyzed using several indexes. The result shows that the positive trend in rainfall implies that the study area is experiencing increasing amounts of precipitation over time, which could be linked to climate change. Whereas, the decreasing trends of temperature results to a cooling trend in the study area which contrasts with the broader global pattern of warming due to climate change. Regarding to sensitivity issues Keteti kebele’s livelihoods are less sensitive to climate variability, but still vulnerable. Whereas, Gamo Duksi kebele’s livelihoods are moderately sensitive and Dhobus kebele’s livelihoods are highly sensitive to climate change, and with the highest sensitivity score, Dhobu’s residents are at significant risk of livelihood disruption from climate-related events. The livelihood status of the three kebeles in relation to climate change is most vulnerable in Dhobu and least vulnerable in Keteti based on their sensitivity scores, with Gamo Duksi falling in between. Therefore, by improving resource management, diversifying livelihoods, and increasing access to climate information and social safety nets, pastoralists can build adaptation to the challenges posed by climate change. The study recommends designing supportive policies and investments that target areas with lower adaptive capacities to level the playing field and enhance overall resilience.