Analysis of the trend of lung cancer incidence in Fenghua District of Ningbo City， Zhejiang Province， 2009‒2023

ObjectiveTo analyze the trend of lung cancer incidence in Fenghua District, Ningbo City of Zhejiang Province from 2009 to 2023, and to estimate the age-period- cohort effects of incidence rate, so as to provide scientific basis for the formulation of lung cancer prevention and control measures in Fenghua District.MethodsJoinpoint software was utilized to analyze the trends and calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of lung cancer incidence based on the tumor incidence surveillance data from Fenghua District, 2009‒2023. The age-period-cohort (APC) model for lung cancer incidence was analyzed using STATA 17.0 software, and net drift and local drift of lung cancer incidence rates were analyzed using online analytical tools.ResultsThe incidence of lung cancer in Fenghua District showed an overall upward trend from 2009 to 2023, with the standardized incidence rate increasing from 45.05/100 000 in 2009 to 108.20/100 000 in 2023 (AAPC=7.05%, P<0.05). The increase in the standardized incidence rate for females (AAPC=12.72%, P<0.05) was higher than that for males (AAPC=2.97%, P<0.05). The overall net drift in lung cancer incidence for residents of Fenghua District was 11.71%, with the net drift for females (16.54%) being higher than that for males (6.64%). The local drift in lung cancer incidence among different age groups ranged from -3.37% to 35.18%. The results of APC model showed that the risk of lung cancer incidence increased and then decreased with age, with the highest age effect coefficient observed in the 65‒69 years age group at 1.08. The period effect showed a gradually increasing trend in lung cancer incidence risk with the progression of time, and the period effect coefficient in 2019‒2023 (0.46) was higher than that in 2009‒2013 (-0.39), increasing by 217.95%. The cohort effect coefficient showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing with the expansion of the birth cohort, in which the lowest cohort effect coefficient was -1.07 observed in the birth cohort of 1964‒1968 and the highest cohort effect coefficient was 1.77 in the birth cohort of 1924‒1928.ConclusionThe incidence of lung cancer in Fenghua District shows an upward trend from 2009 to 2023, with a higher increase in incidence rates among females than that in males. The risk of lung cancer incidence exists a trend of increasing and then decreasing with age growth. With the progression of time, the risk of lung cancer incidence shows a gradually increasing trend. However, with the expansion the birth cohort, the risk of lung cancer incidence demonstrates a trend of first decreasing and then increasing.