我国植物油料进口贸易潜力分析Analysis of the import trade potential of plant oilseed in China

为了助力我国植物油料产业安全，基于我国植物油料进口实际情况，利用2022年中国植物油料进口额前26个贸易伙伴国2013—2022年的跨国面板数据，构建了改进的贸易引力模型，对我国植物油料进口贸易潜力进行了分析，并提出了增强我国植物油料产业安全的政策性建议。通过改进的贸易引力模型，分析出中国与俄罗斯和蒙古2个国家的植物油料贸易属于贸易潜力成熟型，与阿根廷、美国、巴西、苏丹、澳大利亚等18个国家属于贸易潜力成长型，与乌克兰、坦桑尼亚等6个国家属于贸易潜力不足型。提出的政策建议包括鼓励企业积极参与植物油料贸易、有效防范国际市场不确定风险和推动新兴市场多元化发展等。In order to help plant oilseed industry security, based on the actual situation of plant oilseed imports in China, using international panel data in 2013-2022 of 2022 Chinese plant oilseed imports top 26 trading partners, the improved trade gravity model was built, the plant oilseed import trade potential was analyzed, and the enhancement plant oilseed industry security policy suggestions were put forward. Through the improved trade gravity model, the analysis results showed that the plant oilseed trade with Russia and Mongolia belonged to trade potential mature, with Argentina, the United States, Brazil, Sudan, Australia and other 13 countries belonged to trade potential growth, and with Ukraine, Tanzania and other 4 countries belonged to trade potential insufficiency. Policy suggestions include encouraging enterprises to actively participate in plant oilseed trade, effectively preventing uncertain risks in the international market and promotimg the diversified development of emerging markets.