The Ties That Bind: State Sponsorship and the Durability of Militant Alliances

How does the involvement of state sponsors affect the durability of alliances amongst militant groups? This dissertation investigates the distinctions between alliances involving groups with state sponsors and those without such support, and how that subsequently impacts militant cooperation with other militant allies. I theorize that state sponsor involvement affects alliance management firstly by providing the necessary resources to cover the costs of cooperation. Secondly, I contend that state sponsor involvement helps facilitate a more stable and institutionalized structure for inter-alliance coordination. Lastly, I argue that state sponsor involvement ensures that alliances don't unintentionally fail due to weak organizational resiliency against counter-militant measures. I then further theorize that state sponsor involvement influences militant alliance dynamics, particularly in competitive conflict environments, where shared sponsors may mitigate the competitive pressures from the external conflict environment and dyadic relations internally. To test my theory, I first run a panel fixed-effects model to test whether state sponsorship is positively associated with the overall size of a militant group's alliance network and the number of new allies it makes on a yearly scale. I then run survival models (event history analysis) to evaluate whether the presence of state sponsors impacts alliance durability by assessing the risk of alliance failure for militant dyads. Lastly, I conduct a comparative case study on Hamas and its state sponsors (Iran in particular), in contrast to Al Qaeda and its network of allies and affiliates. I use this case to illustrate how the nature of Hamas' relationship with other Palestinian groups has largely been facilitated by Iran, which helped overcome some of the difficulties Al Qaeda has had to face in maintaining the solidarity and strength of its network in contrast. I then further delve into how Iran's increasing presence and influence among different militant networks has the potential to cause a ripple effect on regional stability and militant behavior in the Middle East and beyond. I conclude by outlining the research's contribution to the discipline, and directions for future research.