Policy-Driven Development of Electric and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles for Low-Carbon Transition in Hainan Province

Hainan Province, rich in renewable energy resources, has implemented policies to promote electric vehicles (EVs) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs), driving a green, low-carbon transformation.This study utilizes the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) to analyze the impact of policy interventions on energy demand, CO emissions, and energy costs in Hainan's transportation and electricity sectors, considering three scenarios: Baseline (BAS), Now Policy (NPS), and Advanced Policy (APS).The findings show that stringent policies reduce fossil fuel dependence, promote clean energy, and support sustainable development.The findings show that stringent policies significantly reduce fossil fuel dependence, promote clean energy adoption, and support sustainable development.By 2045, Hainan's total energy costs are projected to exceed $10 billion, with electricity costs comprising the largest share.Compared to BAS, the NPS and APS scenarios reduce transportation fossil fuel consumption by 10.3% and 12.7%, respectively; CO emissions decrease by 5.0% in NPS and 9.6% in APS; and energy costs are lowered by $470.3 million under NPS and $660.9 million under APS.To promote the development of EVs and HCFVs, this study recommends accelerating their adoption, advancing clean energy transition, boosting renewable energy, setting carbon reduction targets, and optimizing clean energy investments.