A Missed Opportunity but not an Opportunity Lost: Forging a Meaningful Security Partnership with India in the Indo-Pacific

The 16th BRICS Summit, held in late October 2024, marked the conclusion of a four-year period of heightened tensions between India and China. Triggered by the Galwan Valley crisis in 2020, this period was characterized by mutual military build-ups, aggressive posturing, heated political discourse, and an escalation of nationalist rhetoric. Given the heightened threat of conflict between these two nuclear-armed powers, the warm handshakes and conciliatory gestures exchanged between President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit were rightly celebrated by the international community for helping restore stability to the region. Though the Galwan Crisis resulted in a regrettable escalation of tensions along the contested border, it also opened a critical window of opportunity for Western governments. Confronted with its vulnerabilities in the face of an emboldened China, India became increasingly proactive in seeking external support to counterbalance Beijing's growing assertiveness. This created a unique chance for the US, UK, and their allies to not only strengthen defence partnerships with New Delhi but also align their strategic interests in countering China's influence across the Indo-Pacific. Seen from this perspective, the Galwan moment was marked by both substantial achievements and squandered potential. While significant strides were made in areas like joint initiatives and technology sharing, missteps in diplomatic messaging and an overemphasis on shared democratic values undermined the momentum. Though the West may have missed the full opportunity presented by the Galwan moment, however, this does not mean future chances to strengthen ties with India are lost. While the current thaw in Sino-Indian dynamics offers a sunny short-term forecast for their bilateral relationship, structural tensions - rooted in territorial disputes, competing ambitions, and regional dynamics - ensure that the two Asian powers remain locked in a long-term geopolitical struggle. Over the next decade, these tensions are only likely to intensify, creating fresh opportunities for defence collaboration and regional influence. This is therefore a pivotal moment for western governments to forge strong relationships with India based on shared security concerns in the Indo-Pacific. Seen from this perspective, the closing of the Galwan window is not a lost cause so much as it is a reminder to learn from these successes and failures. By building on this understanding and prioritizing pragmatic engagement, Western powers can position themselves to act decisively when the geopolitical pendulum inevitably swings back in their favour.