Analyzing the coupling between the gas and the electricity markets during the European energy transition

The European Union aims to become climate-neutral with net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, as outlined in the European Green Deal. This dissertation investigates the interplay between the gas and electricity markets during this transition, focusing on the implications of increased sector coupling and the associated uncertainties. The study begins by exploring the background and motivation for the research, highlighting the EU's decarbonization goals and the role of natural gas as a bridge fuel. It addresses the challenges posed by the increased interdependencies between the gas and electricity sectors, particularly during extreme weather events such as the Dunkelflaute, characterized by low renewable energy infeed and high energy demand. The research is structured around four key questions: What interplays among sectors and markets are particularly relevant for the energy transition? What uncertainties need to be considered in the energy transition? What are appropriate approaches to model the interplay of energy sectors and markets? What mathematical formulations are preferable when modeling energy markets? The dissertation explores different modelling methods, including stochastic optimization, robust optimization, and scenario analysis, and subsequently employs a combination of these methods to address these questions. It presents a detailed analysis of the German gas and electricity markets, using historical data and future scenarios to model potential congestion in the gas network and the impact on energy security. Key findings include the identification of critical interdependencies between the gas and electricity sectors, the importance of considering uncertainties in energy modeling, and the benefits and drawbacks of integrated modeling approaches. The study also highlights the potential for hydrogen to play a significant role in the future energy system, particularly in decarbonizing the gas sector. The dissertation concludes with a discussion of the implications for policymakers and industry stakeholders, emphasizing the need for coordinated efforts to ensure a secure and sustainable energy transition.