The Cluelessness of Longtermism

According to longtermism, far-future utility (potentially) far outweighs near-future utility, and therefore, we should prioritize far-future consequences of our actions and policies. The idea depends on our ability to predict the future. If it is taken into account that we are actually ``clueless'' about the far future (and to a far lesser extent also about the nearer future), the argument in favor of longtermism falls apart. We should do whatever we can reasonably expect to produce the best results, but such reasonable expectations are always on relatively short time scales. Hence, it is the near (and mid) future that matters.