Changing Dynamics of Constitutional Progress and Regression in Asia: Interplay of Electoral, Civic, and Judicial Constitutionalism; 亞洲憲政進步與倒退的動態分析：選舉憲政主義、公民憲政主義與司法憲政主義的相互作用

The constitutional landscape in Asia is marked by considerable diversity, encompassing mature democracies, authoritarian regimes, and hybrid systems navigating the space between them. While some jurisdictions have progressed into constitutional democracies, others have experienced regressions into illiberal or authoritarian rule, including military takeovers. These constitutional dynamics reflect not only internal tensions such as political polarization and social division, but also external pressures such as rising military tension, security threats, technology rivalry, and trade disputes. Together, these forces have shaped the evolving nature of constitutionalism in Asia, which both engages with and contributes to broader global constitutional trends. Against this backdrop, the article seeks to renew and advance scholarly discourse by examining constitutional developments across Asia over the past decade, from the mid-2010s to the mid-2020s. It aims to identify the defining features of recent constitutional changes and the underlying forces driving constitutional progress or regression, by focusing the analysis on the two core pillars that have shaped the trajectory of constitutionalism in the region: constitutional revisions and electoral politics. Regarding the first pillar, this article finds that a high level of constitutional dynamism has prevailed, evidenced by frequent constitutional revisions or constitution-making efforts across the jurisdictions. These changes, however, have not consistently translated into meaningful progress; in many instances, they have led to varying extents of regression. Democracies that emerged in the 1990s and 2000s, in particular, have struggled to sustain reform momentum. Regressive agendas have often been met with civic resistance, while progressive reforms have frequently failed to secure sufficient political support. With respect to the second pillar, this article observes that the routine conduct of elections in accordance with constitutionally mandated timelines has been the focus of constitutional progress. Yet, these electoral processes have often become the catalyst of partisan politics, escalating into electoral disputes and, in some cases, constitutional crises. As this article argues, the two pillars are mutually reinforcing, serving as the primary engine of constitutional changes in Asia. This article further contends that three forces—electoral constitutionalism, civic constitutionalism, and judicial constitutionalism—function both as drivers and safeguards of democratic consolidation and constitutional progress in the region. The interplay between and among these forces, shaped by the actors involved, has contributed to strengthening democratic resilience and facilitating progressive constitutional development across Asia. 亞洲的憲政發展圖像呈現高度多樣性，涵蓋成熟民主國家、威權政體，以及介於兩者之間的混合體制。雖然亞洲部分國家已邁向憲政民主，但亦有部分國家出現倒退趨勢，重返不自由政體甚或是威權統治，其中亦包括軍事政變。這些憲法動態變遷不僅反映了國家內部的政治極端化與社會分裂等緊張局勢，也受到外部壓力影響，例如軍事局勢升溫、安全威脅、科技競爭與貿易衝突。這些內外力量共同形塑出亞洲憲政主義的變化，也與全球憲政發展趨勢形成互動。在此背景下，本文透過檢視從2010年代中期至2020年代中期亞洲地區的憲政發展，回應並深化當前學術對話。本文聚焦分析形塑亞洲憲政主義發展路徑的兩大核心支柱：憲法修正與選舉政治，藉以界定這段期間亞洲憲法變遷的主要特徵，以及在其背後驅動憲政進步或倒退的關鍵因素。 首先就第一個支柱，本文發現亞洲各地存在憲法變遷的高度動能，表現在頻繁的修憲或制憲行動中。然而，這些變遷並非總是帶來實質進步，在許多情況下，反而可能導致不同程度的倒退。尤其是在1990年代與2000年代建立民主體制的國家，在維持改革動力上持續面臨挑戰。可能導致憲政倒退的修憲案常引發公民社會的抵制，而進步改革則常因缺乏足夠的政治支持而難以落實。至於第二個支柱，本文觀察到依照憲法規定的期程例行辦理選舉，已成為憲政進步的重點。然而，這些選舉過程往往催化黨派政治，甚至升級成選舉爭議，在部份情況下，嚴重者更會導致憲政危機。本文並主張，這兩大支柱彼此間相互強化，成為推動亞洲憲法變遷的主要動力來源。本文進一步提出，選舉憲政主義、公民憲政主義與司法憲政主義等三股力量，不僅推動民主鞏固與憲政進步，也發揮守護的功能。這三者之間的互動關係受到參與其間的行動者影響，更對亞洲地區民主韌性的強化與憲政發展的深化帶來貢獻。