Age Structure and Spatial Distribution Pattern of Rubber Tapping Labor Force in Hainan Island

Currently, tapping is the only method of obtaining natural rubber, an essential industrial raw material. The stability of the labor force supply for tapping is crucial for the sustainable development of the natural rubber industry. As China's second-largest rubber planting area, Hainan Island had a planting area of 585,800 hectares in 2020, accounting for 45% of the country's total, with over 2 million workers. Labor force shortages and the aging phenomenon in tapping have become increasingly severe and have attracted significant attention. However, the related research lacks detailed spatial information for conversion estimation, which hinders macroeconomic regulation. This study is based on the 2020 Hainan Island natural rubber distribution map, Dynamic World land use classification products, and the WorldPop population distribution dataset. It employs multiple technical operations such as temporal and spatial filtering, removal of small patches, buffer parameter settings, and masking to obtain the 2020 potential tapping labor density map for Hainan's rubber planting areas. Spatial statistical methods are used to analyze the spatial distribution and age structure characteristics of potential tapping labor force in Hainan's rubber planting areas as well as the spatial distribution of labor force shortage degrees after conversion to actual tapping labor force, including the labor force shortage levels and areas for each city and county, revealing the spatial pattern. The results reveal the following: 1) The total number of potential tapping laborers in Hainan's rubber planting areas is 1.567 4 million, with a spatial distribution pattern of high in the north and low in the south. The proportion of the population aged 45~59 years is 34%, indicating a significant aging trend. 2) There are significant spatial differences in the degree of labor shortage. The primary shortage areas are mainly concentrated in the junction areas of the central-western and central-eastern counties, with a belt-like distribution. In contrast, the secondary and tertiary shortage areas are widely distributed in the central-western, central, and some central-eastern county junctions, with shortage in the central area being particularly severe, showing a contiguous distribution. 3) The primary shortage areas in Danzhou City, Baisha County, and Qiongzhong County rank in the top three, with a cumulative area of 50,500 hectares. Baisha, Qiongzhong, Chengmai, and Ledong Counties are also prominent in the secondary and tertiary shortage areas, covering a total area of 23,300 hectares. In total, the area of labor shortage regions in Hainan Island is 141,700 hectares, necessitating a future focus. To address the labor force shortage issue in tapping, it is recommended to strengthen infrastructure construction in the rubber plantations within the shortage areas and actively promote new tapping methods (e.g., low-frequency tapping) or tools (e.g., electric tapping knives) to reduce the labor intensity of tapping and increase the number of trees tapped per capita. This will provide favorable support for the sustainable and healthy development of Hainan's natural rubber industry. By revealing the spatial distribution characteristics and degree of tapping labor shortage, this study aims to provide robust decision-making support for the Hainan provincial government in addressing employment issues of tapping labor, optimizing human resource management strategies, and promoting the sustainable development of the natural rubber industry.