Classification and Influencing Factors of County Units with Population Shrinkage in Guangdong Province

Against the background of rapid urbanization, China's districts and counties are characterized by unbalanced, inadequate, and asynchronous development, accompanied by different degrees of population loss. It is of theoretical and practical significance to explore the spatial distribution, evolution, and influencing factors of population shrinkage in county and district units in order to adapt to population shrinkage and formulate locally adapted development plans. Taking Guangdong Province as an example, this study analyzed the spatial distribution characteristics of population shrinkage during 2000–2010 and 2010–2020 based on resident population data at the district and county scales from 2000 to 2020. The study also constructed a socioeconomic-natural-demographic indicator system, explored the factors influencing its formation and evolution from the perspective of non-linear influence with the help of a multi-classification logit regression model and a random forest model, and put forward relevant suggestions. This study has the following results: (1) In the spatial dimension, the population shrinkage areas in Guangdong Province are primarily distributed in the periphery of the Pearl River Delta, with a spatial core-periphery imbalance, as well as differences between counties (including counties and county-level cities) and municipal districts. Among these, counties and county-level cities are the main areas of population shrinkage, characterized by a wide range of shrinkage, a more profound degree, and a more extended period; (2) In the temporal dimension, in the two stages of 2000–2010 and 2010–2020, Guangdong Province has seen an increase in the intensity of population shrinkage, with a trend towards slower, more sustained, wider, and more widespread population shrinkage and a deepening of the shrinkage in the areas adjacent to the nine cities in the Pearl River Delta. The degree of population shrinkage deepened in the eastern part of the northern mountainous region of Guangdong, mainly Meizhou. In contrast, the northern mountainous region of Guangdong, mainly Shaoguan, has gradually recovered from shrinkage; and (3) In the context of globalization, regionalization, and aging, the formation of population shrinkage areas in Guangdong Province is affected by the interaction of multiple factors in the four dimensions of demographic structure, production, life, and nature, with complex mechanisms and different impacts on different types of population shrinkage. Persistent population shrinkage is mainly affected by the demographic structure, especially the increasing aging problem, which leads to a long-term stable population decline. At the same time, economic and social factors also impact the continuous population shrinkage. Additionally, the policy regulation of ecological reserves, which has a direct impact on population distribution and mobility, cannot be ignored. However, in addition to the endogenous factors of the population, intermittent shrinkage is also affected by social and economic aspects such as industrial adjustment and fiscal expenditure, which may lead to fluctuations in economic activities in the short term and thus affect the population distribution.