Research progress on the evolution and influencing factors of carbon emissions in resource-based cities

With the use of fossil fuels, global warming has become a widely discussed topic around the world. China has repeatedly proposed carbon reduction targets in the international community. The characteristics of resource-based cities make them one of the key carbon reduction areas for achieving the dual carbon goals. The research summarizes the methods and characteristics of emission estimation, spatio-temporal evolution, prediction, and influencing factors of carbon emissions in resource-based cities through literature review. And the overall evolution trend and influencing factors of carbon emissions in resource-based cities in China are analyzed. The review found that China’s relevant research has made some progress, and research methods and results are becoming increasingly rich: ① In terms of research objects and scales, studies on carbon emissions are mostly conducted in regions or provinces, with relatively few studies on resource-based cities of different life stages and types. ② In terms of research methods, the estimation of carbon emissions in resource-based cities mainly uses the emission factor method and combines it with nighttime light data. Spatio-temporal evolution research mainly uses Moran’s I and hot-cold spot analysis. Predictive analysis of carbon emissions is mainly based on scenario settings. The factor decomposition method and spatial econometric analysis are mainly used to analyze the influencing factors of carbon emissions in resource-based cities. ③ From the perspective of research results, the total carbon emissions of most resource-based cities in China are large and still in a growing stage. Carbon emissions have a high spatial correlation and agglomeration characteristics, and carbon emissions are expected to continue to increase in the future. There are differences in achieving the 2030 carbon peak target under different baseline development scenarios. The main factors affecting carbon emissions in resource-based cities are population, economy, and energy, among others. The study identifies future research directions, including strengthening the refinement of spatio-temporal studies on carbon emissions in resource-based cities, enhancing the accessibility of carbon emissions data, deepening analysis of the influencing factors of carbon emissions in resource-based cities at different stages of life, building carbon reduction mechanisms and roadmaps for achieving the carbon peak and carbon neutrality in resource-based cities.