Carbon emission estimation and carbon reduction effect analysis of residential buildings: A case study of Shenyang City

In response to the goal of “double carbon”, carbon emissions of existing residential buildings in Shenyang were measured to predict the development trend of carbon emissions in the future, and a new path of energy saving and carbon reduction was sought. This study is based on the local standard of Liaoning Province “Design Standards for Energy Efficiency of Residential Buildings”, SPSS cluster analysis as the basis, the bottom-up model prediction method, with the help of simulation software, from the perspective of the whole life cycle of residential buildings, through the extraction, division, modeling and other methods of typical building models. The study found that the carbon emission of the whole life cycle of residential buildings in Shenyang is 9.56×109 tCO2 at present. In the operation stage, when the area of photovoltaic panels is set to 60% of the roof area, or the green rate of the community is raised to 35%, the annual carbon reduction of single residential buildings in the study case is 938.904 tCO2 and 9.427 tCO2 respectively. The results of this study not only laid a foundation for predicting the future peak CO2 emission of residential buildings in Shenyang, but also provided a reference for the sustainable development of its subsequent construction industry.