Province-Level Decarbonization\nPotentials for China’s\nRoad Transportation Sector

Decarbonizing road transportation is an important task\nin achieving\nChina’s climate goals. Illustrating the mitigation potentials\nof announced policies and identifying additional strategies for various\nvehicle fleets are fundamental in optimizing future control pathways.\nHerein, we developed a comprehensive analysis of carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) emissions from on-road vehicles as well as their mitigation\npotentials based on real-world databases and up-to-date policy scenarios.\nTotal CO<sub>2</sub> emissions of China’s road transportation\nare estimated to be 1102 million tons (Mt) in 2022 and will continue\nto increase if future strategies are implemented as usual. Under current\ndevelopment trend and announced policy controls (i.e., integrated\nscenario), annual CO<sub>2</sub> emissions are estimated to peak at\n1235 Mt in 2025 and then decline to approximately 200 Mt around 2050.\nThe scenario analysis indicates that electrification of passenger\nvehicles emerges as the most imperative decarbonization strategy for\nachieving carbon peak before 2030. Additionally, fuel economy improvement\nof conventional vehicles is identified to be effective for CO<sub>2</sub> emission reduction for trucks until 2035 while new energy\nvehicle promotion shows great mitigation potentials in the long term.\nThis study provides insight into heterogeneous low-carbon transportation\ntransition strategies and valuable support for achieving China’s\ndual-carbon goals.