Spatial Variability of Forest Resilience Potential in the Western Himalayas - A Multivariate Approach Under Future Climate Scenarios

Forest ecosystems of the western Himalaya are simultaneously shaped by steep topography, intense human pressure and a rapidly warming climate. This study assesses the spatial distribution and future changes in forest resilience potential (FRP) across Uttarakhand, India, under current conditions and future high-emission climate scenarios. We developed a multivariate resilience potential index integrating environmental variables including net primary productivity, soil moisture, drought index, slope, temperature, and fire risk, derived from remote sensing datasets and climate projections. Current FRP exhibits sharp spatial contrasts: interior mountain districts (Chamoli, Bageshwar, Rudraprayag) are dominated by High-FRP pixels (>70%) owing to dense, contiguous canopy and low fragmentation, whereas the urbanized plains of Haridwar and Udham Singh Nagar are almost exclusively Low-FRP. Future projections indicate potential shifts, with projected declines in resilience particularly for mid-elevation areas, such as Pithoragarh and Dehradun. Environmental drivers, including temperature increases and altered precipitation patterns, were strongly associated with projected resilience reductions. Results of this study contribute important spatially explicit insights into forest resilience dynamics in the Western Himalayas and highlight the necessity for integrating resilience assessments into regional planning efforts to sustainably manage forest resources under projected climate change conditions.