Carbon emissions reduction of cropland management is substantially greater than carbon sequestrations of cropland abandonment in the North China Plain

Both cropland abandonment and cropland management measures have been demonstrated to mitigate global warming. Nevertheless, comparative studies on the advantages of cropland abandonment for carbon sequestration and cropland management measures for reducing carbon emissions are scarce. This study identified the extent of abandoned cropland in the North China Plain using remote sensing images, and designed different cropland management measures with consideration of policies enacted by the Chinese government. The objective was to calculate the carbon sinks and emissions of cropland under the conditions of cropland abandonment and cropland management measures. Our findings revealed that the abandoned cropland area in 2018 was 791.00 km², with average annual net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of 46.93 g C m⁻². NEP accounts for both vegetation and soil respiration, this value reflects a net carbon sink effect. Accordingly, cropland abandonment contributed to a net carbon sequestration of approximately 0.04 Tg C. Through implementing cropland management measures, the maximum potential carbon emission reduction is estimated at 34.36 Tg CO₂ eq. These measures include reduction of nitrogen fertilizer utilization by 30%, adoption of sprinkler irrigation, increase in straw return rate to 50%, and employment of enhanced nitrogen fertilizers. In terms of carbon emissions reductions, the potential of cropland management measures is substantially greater than that of carbon sequestration created by cropland abandonment. Economically, the financial value of carbon emission reduction through cropland management measures far exceeds the value of the carbon sequestration from cropland abandonment. Overall, our findings highlight the critical role of government-led cropland management measures play in achievement of China’s dual-carbon goals and advancement of low-carbon agricultural development. In the North China Plain, compared to the carbon sequestration benefits of cropland abandonment, cropland management offers scalable emission reductions and should be prioritized in low-carbon agricultural policies.Suitable management measures can systematically reduce cropland carbon emissions in this region, such as enhanced nitrogen fertilizers, sprinkler irrigation, and straw return.Providing economic incentives by establishing the carbon trading system associated with agriculture can improve sustainable cropland management measures.Cropland management measures and agricultural carbon trading should be considered in agricultural low-carbon development framework during the following Five-Year Plan policy, specifically tailored to the North China Plain. In the North China Plain, compared to the carbon sequestration benefits of cropland abandonment, cropland management offers scalable emission reductions and should be prioritized in low-carbon agricultural policies. Suitable management measures can systematically reduce cropland carbon emissions in this region, such as enhanced nitrogen fertilizers, sprinkler irrigation, and straw return. Providing economic incentives by establishing the carbon trading system associated with agriculture can improve sustainable cropland management measures. Cropland management measures and agricultural carbon trading should be considered in agricultural low-carbon development framework during the following Five-Year Plan policy, specifically tailored to the North China Plain.