Estimating the transition from alcohol drinking onset to alcohol dependence within the first year of use in the United States, 2002–2019

Alcohol continues to be one of the most consumed substances worldwide, with unhealthy use on the rise. This study investigates the transition from the first full drink to the onset of alcohol dependence within 12 months among individuals with newly incident alcohol use in the United States. Data come from the US National Surveys on Drug Use and Health (2002–2019), encompassing 67,135 participants, with assessments via confidential computer-assisted self-interviews. Newly incident drinkers had their first full drink no more than 12 months before evaluation. Alcohol dependence (AD) was based on criteria from the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition (DSM-IV). We found that an estimated 1.7% of individuals transition into alcohol dependence within the first year of alcohol use (95% CI = 1.5–1.9). The study includes a diverse age group and emphasizes a shorter transition time between initiation and dependence compared to previous studies. Results reflect the possibility of a rapid transition to dependence within the first year of alcohol use and help identify a high-risk group that could benefit from more specialized public health prevention and intervention strategies.