Carbon balance dynamic evolution and simulation coupling economic development and ecological protection: a case study of Jiangxi Province at county scale from 2000–2030

In addressing global climate change and promoting economic growth, achieving a comprehensive carbon balance at the county level is vital for sustainable development. However, most studies focus on the balance between carbon emissions and sequestration (CESB), neglecting the intricate ecological and economic carbon balance (EECB) at this scale. This study introduces an analytical framework that couples economic development with ecological protection by using coupling coordination degree analysis, carbon balance zoning, and the Markov-PLUS model. Taking Jiangxi Province as a case study, we evaluate the spatio-temporal dynamics of carbon balance from 2000–2020 and predict future trends for 2030 under four potential development scenarios. Results reveal significant regional variations in CESB over the two decades, which primarily exhibit net carbon emission. Meanwhile, the continuous decline in EECB highlights the need for balanced economic and ecological development. By 2030, the land use's carbon sequestration capacity is expected to increase under different scenarios, leading to a ‘middle-high, sides-low’ spatial pattern in CESB. These findings are crucial for policymakers in devising strategies for sustainable regional development.