Identifying socio-ecological dynamics in water systems through adaptive cycles

Investigating the dynamics of water systems is challenging but essential for identifying weaknesses and strengths that enhance adaptation and transformation, contributing to governance. We propose integrating approaches to the adaptive cycle framework to understand socio-ecological dynamics, system interactions, and variables that impact a water system as a reservoir in the Brazilian semi-arid region. Key findings include the identification of non-linearity in the socio-ecological dynamics and the simultaneous use of adaptation and transformation mechanisms to prevent water collapse. We also emphasize the role of institutions in creating resilience, which can steer the system towards desired or undesired regimes. Additionally, understanding relationships among systems at various planning levels and their variables is crucial, as they can influence water systems fast or slowly. The outcomes show the importance of considering a reservoir at the local planning level within a river basin, state, and nation. This consideration helps improve water governance and policymaking.