Contesting regional sovereignty from below: the unsettling effect of unilateral independence and autonomy referendums

This article examines the efficacy of unilateral regional sovereignty referendums as narrative-building and politicising processes. It uses interrupted time series modelling to analyse the longitudinal effect of recent referendums in Catalonia, Veneto and Lombardy on the salience of autonomist issues in national media. The relative politicising effect is assessed by comparing saliency trends to similar autonomist regions without referendums and the 2014 Scottish case as a high-profile bilateral referendum. The findings show that unilateral referendums effectively accentuate the salience of regional sovereignty, though the magnitude and longevity of these effects vary, moderated by interest politics and regionalist movement dynamics.