Regional unemployment, welfare state and the rise of populism in European Union regions

This paper explores the effect of economic insecurity, proxied by the unemployment rate, on the rise of populism across European Union regions, accounting for differences between left- and right-wing populist parties. We employ a meso-level analysis across NUTS-2 regions in the EU-27 and UK, covering all national elections from 2000 to 2018. The findings indicate that (1) higher unemployment in a region is associated with higher electoral support for left-wing populist parties in that region; and (2) that this effect is more pronounced in countries with less generous welfare states.