Assessing the impact of Fridays for Future on climate policy and policymaking in German cities

During 2019, Fridays for Future (FfF) groups were highly active across the globe, calling for changes to both policy outputs (specifically, a more ambitious climate mitigation approach) and policymaking processes (namely, greater public participation and civil society involvement in decision-making). However, we lack a comprehensive assessment of the changes the movement may have induced, and why it may have been more successful in some places than others. Building on Hall’s (1993) three orders of change, and drawing on interviews and document analysis in 25 German cities, we develop and apply a framework to measure its influence. We found that all 25 cities did change their policymaking processes as a result of FfF pressure, and most also introduced more ambitious policy outputs. In particular, we found FfF had more success in those cities where greater scope for a step-change in climate ambition existed: namely, where socioeconomic, demographic and political conditions were amenable to progressive climate policy, but where the municipality had hitherto not been a leader in the field. Conversely, the movement had less impact in leading cities and in places with poorer and older inhabitants and stronger far-right representation.