Policing with a Crystal Ball: Beyond Hotspots: Policing Harm, Not Just Crime

The way in which law enforcement agencies tackle crime has traditionally been rooted in the assumption that the volume of crime directly correlates to the threat posed to public safety. As a result, strategies have typically prioritised “hotspot” policing, where high-crime areas receive increased police attention and resources. However, this approach often overlooks the nuanced nature of crime and harm, as certain offences—while occurring less frequently—can have disproportionate long-term consequences for both individuals and society. This essay examines the paradigm shift from crime volume-based policing to harm-based policing. It will delve into harm measurement frameworks such as the Crime Severity Score (CSS) and the Cambridge Crime Harm Index (CCHI), both of which attempt to move beyond raw crime statistics to assess the broader impact of criminal activity. By focusing on harm rather than volume, law enforcement agencies can more effectively allocate resources and implement strategies that genuinely enhance public safety and well-being.