Decision model to evaluate the cost of clinical events associated with switching from apixaban to rivaroxaban among patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation in the United States and Germany

Direct-acting oral anticoagulants (DOACs) have emerged as the preferred treatment for nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). However, evidence concerning the economic outcomes of DOAC switching remains limited. This study aimed to assess the economic outcomes of DOAC switching in the US and Germany, two countries with a high AF prevalence and DOAC utilization. A decision model was developed to assess the incidence and cost of stroke/systemic embolism (SE) and major bleeding (MB) associated with switching from apixaban to rivaroxaban in patients with NVAF. The model compared two scenarios: continuers (patients continuing apixaban) and switchers (patients switching from apixaban to rivaroxaban). Model inputs on clinical event rates were sourced from a published real-world study, cost inputs were from a standard costing database and published literature. The analysis was conducted over a 1-year time horizon from US Medicare fee-for-service and German public healthcare payer perspectives. Over one year, 47,036 patients among a hypothetical plan size of 1,000,000 US Medicare fee-for-service members and 1,019,079 patients among the German adult population size of 70,107,122 were estimated to be treated for NVAF with apixaban. Switching all patients from apixaban to rivaroxaban resulted in 1,498 and 32,447 additional clinical events (stroke/SE and MB) and deaths in the US and Germany, respectively, compared to continuing with apixaban. This led to a total incremental cost of $17.3 million and €153 million from Medicare fee-for-service and German public healthcare perspectives, respectively. The incidence and hazard ratios of clinical events informing this analysis were based on a US commercial and Medicare Advantage population and may not be generalizable to other populations. Switching from apixaban to rivaroxaban was associated with increased clinical events, deaths, and higher medical care costs, potentially representing a less favorable strategy economically compared to continuing apixaban among patients with NVAF.