Unveiling the pulse of urban metro stations: a TOD-driven approach to measuring vibrancy using geographically weighted random forest

The relationship between the built environment and human activity patterns is a fundamental research topic in urban studies and planning. This study delves into the intricate relationship between the built environment and urban vibrancy, concentrating on metro station areas (MSAs) within the context of transit-oriented development (TOD). Leveraging a comprehensive dataset and metro passenger flow records, this study introduced an integrated vitality indicator to assess the vibrancy of MSAs. Innovatively, a geographically weighted random forest model is employed to account for the spatial heterogeneity and nonlinear interactions between TOD characteristics and urban vibrancy. Additionally, SHAP analysis is incorporated to quantitatively evaluate the impact of TOD features on urban vitality. Findings underscore the significance of design elements, density, and accessibility in fostering a vibrant urban atmosphere around metro stations. This study highlights the importance of life and entertainment services, building density and height, and public transport services in enhancing urban vibrancy. Spatial distribution analysis shows a concentration of high vitality in city centers, with a gradual decrease toward the periphery. This study contributes to urban planning by proposing targeted strategies for MSAs with low vitality, emphasizing the need for nuanced interventions that consider local effects and variable interactions.