Numerical Prediction of Weather-Induced Embankment Failures

Embankments are crucial components of transportation and flood defense infrastructure, yet those constructed from clays are prone to weather-driven deterioration processes, resulting in gradual loss of hydromechanical performance and potentially severe failures. This paper documents a study aimed to forecast the time to failure of aging clay embankments supporting transportation infrastructure. In this study, a multi-phase numerical modeling approach was used to simulate the long-term, weather-driven hydromechanical behavior of clay embankments of well-documented failure case studies. Numerical models were developed for 34 case studies, and simulations predicted the time to failure due to progressive deterioration. This modeling approach proved efficient in producing data necessary for improving infrastructure asset management. Based on the observations from the numerical results, it is recommended that a Factor of Safety (FoS) target against weather-driven shallow slides is introduced in evaluating the stability of existing embankment slopes and new embankment slopes. An FoS of 1.1–1.2 may be used for existing embankments considering the temporary nature of the conditions causing shallow slides. For new designs, an FoS of 1.3 may be recommended.