Estimación de la informalidad económica en Paraguay con el indice Tanzi–Feige. Periodo de análisis mar 2020--nov 2024

This working paper applies the Tanzi–Feige “shadow money” framework to construct a monthly index of economic informality for Paraguay. The core specification is a log-linear money-demand model incorporating the real interest rate, the price level (CPI), real activity (GDP), and tax pressure. We document the required transformations (logs and first differences), perform stationarity tests (ADF/KPSS), and report diagnostics for normality and heteroskedasticity. The model’s residual is interpreted as a proxy for monetary informality, which we use to analyze dynamics and potential regime shifts. We discuss specification choices, including the treatment of collinearity between cooperative credit (CAC) and tax pressure—leading to the exclusion of CAC from the baseline—and provide robustness checks and policy implications. The sample period and full methodological details are described in the PDF. Keywords: economic informality; Tanzi–Feige; shadow money; money demand; Paraguay; time-series econometrics.JEL: E26; E41; C32; E52.