Exchange Rate Volatility and Agricultural Sector Output in Nigeria: Evidence from 1993 to 2023

This study investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on agricultural sector output in Nigeria over the period 1993 to 2023. The agricultural sector plays a critical role in Nigeria’s economy, yet its performance has been undermined by macroeconomic instability, particularly fluctuations in the exchange rate. Using time series data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and World Bank, the study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine both the short- and long-run relationships between exchange rate volatility and agricultural output. The findings reveal that exchange rate volatility has a statistically significant negative effect on agricultural output in the long run. The study recommends the adoption of exchange rate stabilization policies, increased investment in domestic agricultural production, and strategic foreign exchange interventions to reduce the sector’s vulnerability to currency fluctuations.