Projection of Long-Term Agricultural Energy Demand in Ethiopia

This study presents a comprehensive projection of long-term agricultural energy demand inEthiopia from 2022 to 2050 using the MAED (Model for Analysis of Energy Demand) framework.It evaluates four scenarios: business as usual (BAU), high gross domestic product (GDP) growth,sector-specific plan and energy efficiency and fuel switch. Results indicate a significant increase inenergy demand across all scenarios, with the BAU scenario increasing from about 7.28 PJ in 2022to over 36.2 PJ (401%) by 2050 and the high GDP scenario peaking at 71.3 PJ (879%) by 2050.The sector-specific policy plan results in demand reaching 25.1 PJ (244%) by 2050, driven bytargeted agricultural policies and rural development efforts. Traditional fuels remain dominant,particularly in the high GDP and sector-specific policy cases. However, the energy efficiency andfuel switch scenario demonstrates a more sustainable trajectory, with slower energy demandgrowth 16.1 PJ (132%) by 2050 and reduced dependency on traditional fuels through improvedefficiency and cleaner alternatives such as solar thermal and modern biomass. Key lessons highlight the urgent need to decouple economic growth from traditional fuelreliance in agriculture. Actionable recommendations include: developing and implementing cleanenergy policies tailored to the agricultural sector, promoting the adoption of energy-efficienttechnologies in the agricultural sector, accelerate fuel-switching from traditional biomass tomodern and renewable energy sources through targeted subsidies, and enhancing ruralelectrification using decentralized renewable energy systems. In addition, policymakers shouldintegrate energy planning with national agricultural and climate strategies to ensure resilient, lowcarbon, and inclusive rural development. Further, investment in research is required to assess costeffectiveness of implementation pathways for clean energy transitions.