A Multi-View Predictive Student Modeling Framework with Interpretable Causal Graph Discovery for Collaborative Learning Analytics

Understanding the relationship between student behaviors and learning outcomes is crucial for designing effective collaborative learning environments. However, collaborative learning analytics poses significant challenges, not only due to the complex interplay between collaborative problem-solving and collaborative dialogue but also due to the need for model interpretability. To address these challenges, this paper introduces a multi-view predictive student modeling framework using causal graph discovery. We first extract interpretable behavioral features from students' collaborative dialogue data and game trace logs to predict student learning within a collaborative game-based learning environment. We then apply constraint-based sequential pattern mining to identify cognitive and social behavioral patterns in student's data to improve predictive power. We employ unified causal modeling for interpreting model outputs, using causal discovery methods to reveal key interactions among student behaviors that significantly contribute to predicting learning outcomes and identifying frequent collaborative problem-solving skills. Evaluations of the predictive student modeling framework show that combining features from dialogue and in-game behaviors improves the prediction of student learning gains. The findings highlight the potential of multi-view behavioral data and causal analysis to improve both the effectiveness and the interpretability of collaborative learning analytics.