Fish Fillet Supply Chain Challenges and Opportunities in Nyamagana, Tanzania: A Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) Analysis

The fish fillet supply chain in Nyamagana District, Tanzania, plays a crucial role in supporting livelihoods, ensuring food security, and contributing to economic development. Despite its importance, the sector continues to face major challenges in value addition, inadequate infrastructure, and weak regulatory compliance. This study investigates the determinants of supply chain performance using data from 200 stakeholders—including processors, traders, regulatory officials, and transporters—selected for their direct involvement in key stages of the fish fillet value chain. Annual demand for fish fillet in Tanzania is estimated at over 50,000 metric tons, yet local processing output remains significantly lower, averaging only 15,000–20,000 metric tons annually. This discrepancy highlights systemic constraints in capacity, technology adoption, and cold chain infrastructure. Post-harvest losses are alarmingly high, reaching up to 40%, particularly during storage and transport, further undermining value addition potential. Using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM), the study finds that supply chain performance is significantly influenced by market dynamics (β = 0.33, p < 0.001), infrastructure (β = 0.29, p < 0.001), regulatory compliance (β = 0.25, p < 0.001), and value addition (β = 0.22, p = 0.003). The model explains 68% of the variation in supply chain performance, demonstrating a strong explanatory power through the combined effects of these variables. Findings underscore the urgent need for targeted investments in cold chain logistics, strengthened regulatory enforcement, and capacity-building for micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) involved in fish fillet processing. The study provides evidence-based recommendations for improving the competitiveness, inclusiveness, and sustainability of the fish fillet supply chain in Tanzania.