Strumenti per la valutazione del rischio nel tempo: variazione degli scenari ipotizzati e gestione delle opere di protezione

The presentation focused on the evolving nature of rockfall risk and the methodologies used to assess and manage it effectively. It begins by addressing how risk scenarios are subject to change over time due to environmental factors, geological evolution, and human interventions. These changes necessitate a continuous evaluation of key variables such as slope geometry, weather conditions, and land use, which can significantly influence the likelihood and impact of rockfall events. The presentation then delves into the quantification of the probability of failure of mitigation measures, such as rockfall barriers. It highlights the importance of using probabilistic and time integrated approaches to assess the reliability of these systems. This includes accounting for uncertainties and understanding how different failure modes can affect overall risk levels. Finally, the presentation emphasizes the importance of long-term management of protective structures. It outlines strategies for monitoring the performance of mitigation systems over time, planning maintenance activities, and making informed decisions about reinforcement or replacement.