Climate Change and Agricultural Resilience: Assessing the impact of CO2 Emissions, Renewable Energy, Irrigation Infrastructure on Pakistan's Agricultural Productivity

This study examines the relationship between agricultural resilience and climate change in Pakistan, focusing on the roles of CO₂ emissions, renewable energy consumption, government expenditure on agriculture, and irrigation infrastructure in shaping agricultural productivity. Utilizing quarterly data spanning from 2004Q1 to 2023Q4, the analysis employs a dynamic econometric approach, incorporating unit root testing, Johansen cointegration, and robust least squares regression to assess both short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationships. Empirical findings indicate that renewable energy consumption exerts a positive and marginally significant effect on agricultural value added, suggesting its potential in enhancing productivity through reduced reliance on fossil fuels and improved access to sustainable energy sources. Conversely, government spending on irrigation and farm infrastructure demonstrates a statistically significant negative impact on agricultural output, pointing to possible inefficiencies in public expenditure and transitional disruptions during infrastructure implementation. CO₂ emissions exhibit a negative but statistically insignificant association with agricultural performance, implying that their influence may be indirect, mediated by other variables, or observable only over extended time horizons. Diagnostic tests confirm the presence of long-run cointegration among the variables and generally support the adequacy of the estimated model, despite minor specification concerns. The results underscore the critical importance of effective governance, strategic investment in renewable energy, and the efficient allocation of public resources to enhance the adaptability and sustainability of Pakistan’s agricultural sector in the face of climate change.