D6.3 Implementation of improved indicators on biodiversity loss

Agriculture is linked to multiple environmental impacts, among others land use change (LUC), greenhouse gas emissions, and freshwater eutrophication, which, in turn, are drivers of biodiversity loss. Increasing agri-food exports and trade in agricultural commodities cause the displacement of these impacts along global and increasingly interlinked supply chains, with the associated environmental footprints. Given the complexity and scale of the impacts on biodiversity and the underlying drivers, the quantification of biodiversity impacts from human interventions and future policies requires capturing the causal relationships between LUC, environmental pollution, and the ultimate effects on biodiversity. This can benefit from applying forward-looking, dynamic approaches combined with spatiallyexplicit data on land uses and species and habitat distribution. This deliverable aims to develop indicators of biodiversity loss based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approaches and to integrate them into the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM) for the subsequent analysis of environmental footprints and future biodiversity impacts from policy interventions. Specifically, a dedicated case study on Brazilian soy supply chains arriving in the EU from 2004 to 2020 has been developed. This included the development of a new set of characterisation factors (CFs) for biodiversity loss due to land transformation and land occupation (i.e., land stress) in South America and Africa, respectively, based on CLEVER D2.4. CFs derived from existing impact assessment methods in LCA, namely LC-IMPACT, have been linked to crucial model variables in GLOBIOM and the above-mentioned new set of CFs for land stress obtained in this deliverable. In addition, long-term projections of global LUC and biodiversity impacts from agricultural and forest activities have been derived with the extended GLOBIOM model considering land dynamics in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) framework. The case study results on the biodiversity footprint of Brazilian soy supply chains highlight land stress (transformation and occupation) as the primary driver of biodiversity loss. The intense deforestation induced by soy crops is reflected in the greater impact scores for the municipalities located in states such as Rio Grande do Sul and Maranhão. The analysis of the biodiversity impact of the agriculture and forestry sector for 2020 and future scenarios in GLOBIOM revealed that globally, land stress is the primary driver of impacts on terrestrial ecosystems, while water stress dominates the impacts on aquatic ecosystems. The study also shows significant variations in impacts across regions and even within countries, with a more contrasted ranking of pressures.