Spatio-Temporal Analysis of COVID-19 Infections in Osun State, Nigeria

Objectives: The study aims to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of COVID-19 infections in Osun State, Nigeria, to provide insights into the pandemic's and develop a data-driven spatiotemporal framework to visualize and analyze the infection of COVID-19 in the study area. Study Design: This is an observational study using epidemiological data from the National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) and the Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Health, Osun State. Methods: COVID-19 infection data were collected from January 2020 to December 2021. Descriptive and inferential statistical tools, including Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques, were employed to identify spatial hotspots and temporal trends. The study also utilized time series analysis to evaluate the infection dynamics over the two-year period. Results: The findings revealed that Ede North had the highest number of both total and confirmed COVID-19 cases, while Ejigbo recorded the lowest. Ife Central had the highest number of cases, with Ilesa East exhibiting the lowest and smallest confirmed cases. In Osun Central Geopolitical zone, Osogbo Local Government reported the highest number of confirmed cases, while Irepodun had the lowest. Spatial autocorrelation analysis for 2020, 2021, and 2022 indicated a random pattern with insignificant relationships between local governments, as confirmed by a p-value of 0.71124. This suggests that predicting infection likelihood in neighboring local governments based on available data is challenging. A Hotspot Analysis identified Osogbo as the hotspot zone with the highest frequency of COVID-19 cases among the selected local government areas. In conclusion, this study establishes a foundation for evidence-based decision-making, offering valuable insights to aid the implementation of effective measures for controlling and managing COVID-19 within Osun State. In addition to this, the following were the findings; it was observed that Ede North has the highest number of COVID-19 cases and confirmed cases, while Ejigbo and Ife Central have the lowest and smallest cases in Osun West's Geopolitical zone, and Osogbo Local Government has the highest number of confirmed cases. The study found no significant relationship between local governments and COVID-19 cases in 2020, 2021, and 2022, indicating no impact on proximity. A Hotspot Analysis revealed Osogbo as the local government with the highest frequency of COVID-19 cases among male and female residents in the state. Conclusions: This study highlights the uneven distribution of COVID-19 infections across Osun State, with urban areas serving as hotspots. The findings underscore the need for targeted interventions, particularly in densely populated urban areas.